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2024-12-13 05:53:20

Chinese stocks and ETF US stocks soared at the beginning of the session, with many houses rising by more than 74%, shells rising by more than 13%, and Weilai and Xpeng Motors rising by more than 11%; China ETF rose more than 22%, China overseas Internet ETF rose more than 9%, and China large-cap ETF rose more than 7%.Interpretation of Guangfa Strategy December Politburo Meeting: The change of policy tone "not seen for several years" is more direct to the determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market. Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting said that although the draft of the meeting did not involve specific economic target figures, the change of policy tone was "not seen for several years": (1) "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment" appeared for the first time in the draft of the conference, and we understand that this may well mean that the official target of deficit ratio will be unconventional. (2) "Moderately loose monetary policy" has reappeared since July 2010, and it has been "steady" during the period. Even in the 14-15 monetary easing cycle, there was no adjustment of this wording, which paved the way for the expectation of monetary easing in 25 years; (3) The "more active fiscal policy" has reappeared since July 2020. Under the special background of the 20-year epidemic, the official target of deficit ratio in that year was set at 3.6%, which was the highest since 2010. The change of tone after four years also indicates that the deficit space in 25 years is expected to be further opened. Specific to economic work, the first priority is to "expand domestic demand", and the expression of "stabilize the property market and stock market" is more straightforward: the importance of expanding domestic demand is unquestionable, which alleviates the concern of "whether to only resolve risks and lack demand stimulation" in the early stage of the market; In September, the Politburo meeting stated that the stock market should strive to boost the capital market and the property market should "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". This meeting was more direct in its determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market.Spot silver rose to 3.00% in the day and is now reported at $31.89 per ounce.


South Korea's public prosecutor's office issued an arrest warrant against former defense minister Jin Longxian on suspicion of "civil strife and abuse of power". On the 9th local time, the special investigation headquarters of South Korea's public prosecutor's office said that it issued an arrest warrant against former defense minister Jin Longxian on the grounds of "civil strife and abuse of power". On December 5, local time, South Korean prosecutors banned former Defense Minister Jin Longxian from going abroad on the grounds of alleged "civil strife". (World Wide Web)Minister Wang Wentao met with WTO Director-General Ivira. On December 9, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with WTO Director-General Ivira in Beijing. The two sides had an in-depth exchange of views on WTO reform and deepening cooperation between China and the WTO. Wang Wentao said that the reform of the WTO is of great significance in coping with common global challenges, and China is willing to make joint efforts with all parties to promote positive progress in the reform. China supports the WTO to achieve more results in the field of development and calls for the normal operation of the dispute settlement mechanism. China supports the early incorporation of the investment facilitation agreement into the WTO legal framework, the conclusion of the second-stage agreement on fishery subsidies, the conclusion of the negotiations on the joint statement on e-commerce, and the promotion of multilateral trade rules to keep pace with the times. (Ministry of Commerce)The word "moderate easing" releases the economic signal next year. On December 9, an important meeting was held. The meeting analyzed and studied the economic work in 2025, and mentioned that a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented next year. Since 2011, China has maintained a sound monetary policy tone for a long time. This time, the prefix of monetary policy has changed to "moderately loose", which means that economic policy will provide more liquidity next year. (Yuyuan Tan Tian)


Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December by CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that a new round of policy starting guns will be fired, and the policy inflection point will be reconfirmed, making it clear that the macro policy will be strengthened and effective in 2025. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a "more active fiscal policy" and enriched the policy toolbox, which may indicate that in 2025, both deficit ratio in a narrow sense and deficit ratio in a broad sense will be significantly improved, and the focus of policy development is also expected to be marginal in the field of people's livelihood consumption. From the perspective of monetary policy, this Politburo meeting calls for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. This is the first time that China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy after 2010. It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. From the perspective of domestic demand policy, the statement of expanding domestic demand in an all-round way, especially "vigorously boosting consumption", exceeds market expectations. With the support of the existing policies coming into effect and the policy of increasing domestic demand, the improvement of domestic demand may have strong certainty and sustainability. In addition, in terms of structural policies, on the one hand, the meeting clearly stated that it is necessary to "stabilize the property market and the stock market", and the importance of the stock market continues to be highlighted, and real estate is still in the policy landing period; On the other hand, the meeting emphasized that "scientific and technological innovation leads the development of new quality productive forces", and new industries and future industries are expected to receive further policy support.Xiaomi's second car "YU7" was announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Xiaomi's second car officially landed in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. According to the information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the second model of Xiaomi Automobile is a pure electric SUV, and the trailer label shows that this model is named "YU7". The new car is 4999mm long, 1996mm wide and 1600mm high, with a wheelbase of 3000mm and a top speed of 253 km/h. The new car will use ternary lithium-ion battery produced by Jiangsu Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and the peak power of the driving motor is 220kW/288kW, and it is equipped with an automobile event data recording system (EDR).South Korea's public prosecutor's office issued an arrest warrant against former defense minister Jin Longxian on suspicion of "civil strife and abuse of power". On the 9th local time, the special investigation headquarters of South Korea's public prosecutor's office said that it issued an arrest warrant against former defense minister Jin Longxian on the grounds of "civil strife and abuse of power". On December 5, local time, South Korean prosecutors banned former Defense Minister Jin Longxian from going abroad on the grounds of alleged "civil strife". (World Wide Web)

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